You are investigating the evolution of annual mean temperatures at three different locations (weather stations). You want to investigate if the evolution of temperatures at each location over time already show a trend toward a future climate as we would see it under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
Use the station data for all three stations you worked with during the exercise phase of this course. Additionally, you will need to download the CMIP5 simulation results. Download links are provided in class.
Use the climate model simulations you are provided with to construct models (PDFs) for a modern climate (AMIP), a climate under emission scenario RCP4.5, and a climate under emission scenario RCP8.5. Apply Bayes theorem to categorise the measured data into one of the three climates, and perform these calculations for each station time step. A visualisation of the resulting time series of posterior probabilities can be used to answer the project’s questions.
Optional: Carry out the same analysis for individual months.